Commentaries

Fun, of course, is a relative term. My airline-geek thoughts below are probably serious work for most network planning teams. But I’m assuming there is at least one airline network planner out there who will agree with me that you can still have fun while working on the serious stuff.

The COVID-19 crisis is definitely not fun. But there might be a small silver lining. This crisis forced much of the airline industry to rapidly adapt to a very different world and taught many of us that it is possible for airlines to quickly make changes to the way they work. As a result, we will probably see a fast move to a more environmentally conscious approach to network planning. And yes, we might have some fun in the process.

Fun with the ICAO Carbon Emissions Calculator

Yesterday, while stuck at home due to a rare snowstorm in the Dallas Forth Area, I thought it might be fun to check out the ICAO Carbon Emissions Calculator. For my first time using this calculator I wanted a fun place to visit, so naturally I tried round trip DFW-AUS. The calculator told me that for the 612 km round trip journey my CO₂ impact would be 96 kg. I was stunned. That’s more than I weigh. Then I saw in the fine print that this was for economy class. In business class it would be more than that (but I don’t know why).

The ultimate network planning carbon emissions KPI

While one passenger may only want to know the carbon impact just for his or her itinerary, a network planner will want to know the carbon impact for a whole flight schedule. As a measure of this, do we need to agree on a universal KPI everyone in the airline industry can relate to? Maybe CO_2/ASK is a good measure of a schedule? Should we also consider CO_2/FTK? We can have some fun coming up with a KPI with a catchy name that is easy to explain to the rest of the airline. Also, should we track the variance between the network planning forecast vs. actual KPI? Hopefully that tracking will be automatic since that is not going to be fun for anyone to do manually.

While it might be fun to compute the KPI once for a small network for one day, it certainly will not be fun doing this for a large schedule for a large period on regular basis. We will need some automation to calculate this for us quickly when needed or we might avoid tracking it.

While the ICAO calculator provides an indicative approximation and was very good at shocking me the first time, many network planners will need a KPI that has more accuracy. We could have some fun deciding which additional factors to consider for a more accurate KPI calculation. These might include:

1. Forecast bookings or actual load factor for each flight.

2. Forecast cargo or actual freight load for each flight.

3. Fuel burn emission parameters specific to aircraft types and engine types used for a flight.

4. Flight times and taxi times separately instead of block times, maybe also with seasonal variations.

Imagine a really accurate KPI that considers all the relevant factors and tells us how good (or bad) a schedule is instantly at touch of a button. Wouldn’t that be fun?

The P word

Profitability. While a network planner might have a lot of fun developing a new schedule that is forecast to capture great passenger traffic resulting in great revenue gains, the VP of network planning might be very sensitive to the impact on profitability after considering factors such as carbon offsets or other carbon mitigation schemes. The computation used for the carbon emission KPI should also be part of the schedule profitability calculator that network planning uses. No fun having an automatic KPI but not being able to automatically include environmental costs as part of schedule profitability calculation.

When does the fun start?

The urgency for environmentally conscious network planning may vary by airline. Some airlines have already started network planning with an environmental consideration because they realize that when they emerge from the COVID-19 crisis this will likely be a crucial part of their business. This may be in anticipation of CORSIA moving from a voluntary stage to a mandate stage and countries they operate in being tougher to expand in while keeping the same carbon footprint. Additionally, the airline industry will probably get closer scrutiny than many other industries.

Apart from official mandates, the travelling public will become more sensitive to an airline’s environmental footprint and network planning departments will be key to managing that since that is where airline schedules start. Another motivation might be in keeping with the airline’s brand message and competitive strategy. It will probably be more fun for network planners if they get ready for this sooner rather than wait till later.

Slot conference fun

Those who know me will not be surprised that I thought of slots when thinking of fun things to do in network planning. But I will admit that many network planners think working with slots is the opposite of fun. Fun or not, we have to work with slots to get access to airports at the times we want for our schedules. I expect that as airports become more sensitive to noise and emissions, network planners will have to expand their thinking of slots beyond runway and gate availability and also start think of slots in terms of noise and carbon constraints. Additionally, there will also be new slot constraints related to electric, hydrogen, and/or SAF powerplants. Slot management will get more complex and maybe meetings with airport coordinators will be a bit intense but after the meetings are done network planners can still have some fun networking at the slot conferences

Planes, trains and automobiles

Some governments are starting to push for ground transport as a more environmentally conscious alternative to air travel for shorter distances. While this might take some of the fun out of point-to-point short haul network planning, it might add to the fun of designing flight networks over multiple connect points to offer itineraries where trains or automobiles are not reasonable alternatives. But the fun will really start when we get new airplane options which are environmentally very competitive compared to trains.

New airplane fun

It looks like we are approaching a point where new aircraft and powerplants with substantially lower carbon and/or noise footprints will become commercially viable. New aircraft types will give us new opportunities (and new problems) and some network planners will start working with manufacturers to influence aircraft development to better fit their future needs. By getting involved now they might have a lot more fun than those that wait till later.

Electric powerplants will open new opportunities for short haul feeder networks in regions where there is better infrastructure and commercial fit for such aircraft. And that could involve designing completely new hub structures for the network. These powerplants might prove to be a big commercial advantage where airport access is very limited due to noise restrictions. How many more passengers will you get if you offer to take your passengers on an “ePlane” for their connecting flight?

For some flights hydrogen sub types might be a good fit when operated between points where hydrogen fuel cells are economically available. And for some flights SAF subtypes might be a good fit when operated between points where SAFs are economically available. In both cases the carbon cost tradeoffs will need to be considered. Potentially, an airline might have one airframe operated with two or more fuel powerplant subtypes and the fun will be in optimizing which powerplant to use for which route on which day.

With these new types coming into the marketplace, for both the manufacturers and airline network planning departments, it will not be much fun unless they have tools to analyze the impact of different airframe and powerplant options. It will be important to be able to see which type is best for which mission with a clear indication of carbon/noise cost/benefit tradeoffs for both the seller and buyer of such aircraft.

Conclusion

Once COVID-19 related travel restrictions ease, it could be argued that it will be in the network planning teams interest to visit manufacturers at fun locations to engage in serious discussions about market needs and product capabilities. Depending on point of view, rides in demonstrator models might be fun also, but for the serious purpose of understanding the product and configuration options. Adding to that, visits to airports in fun locations might also be needed to help the airports get ready for the new schedules network planners will be creating in the not-so-distant future. Now I need to figure out a way to be a part of this, so I don’t miss out on any of the fun.